Report Summary

Period covered: 30 June – 27 July 2024

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.

Retail sales

Retail sales rose by xx% YoY in July, after a slight June dip, driven by sporting events, discounts, and mixed weather impacting categories unevenly.

Factors impacting the headline performance in the month include:

Sporting events

July was dominated by major sporting events, bolstering home entertainment, sports gear and beverages. But overall food volumes stayed flat, as spending shifted to hospitality. Pubs and bars saw a xx% YoY spending increase, the highest since January.

Unsettled weather

Below average temperatures in the first half of July impacted Clothing & Footwear sales, while later record temperatures boosted summer essentials such as BBQ foods. Footfall remained broadly flat, aided by summer breaks and England’s Euro performance but hampered by mixed weather.

Price cuts as earnings grow

Inflation rose slightly to xx% in July. Importantly, grocery prices have normalised, with promotional spending up by 15% YoY (Kantar). Non-food has been in deflation for three months, driven by home-related categories. Earnings growth continued to outpace inflation, with regular earnings rising by xx% in the quarter to May and by xx% in June. However, households remain cautious to spend on non-essential retail and continue to prioritise savings over spending on big-ticket items.

Housing pressure

Elevated mortgage rates, though softening, continue to strain budgets, with xx% for a two-year fix in August (Moneyfacts). Renters are now spending a record xx% of income on rent, as prices rose xx% YoY in July (ONS).

Shifted Priorities

Discretionary spending has shifted to experiences and low-ticket items. Travel spending grew by xx%, with travel agents up xx% in the month (Barclays). Health & Beauty outperformed, driven by Covid-19 cases, summer colds, and consumer interest in small indulgence.

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Sales values and volumes both rose in July